!H
A part-score deal refers to a situation where each pair at the table
has a combined total of only about 17-23 high-card points.
In other words, neither side has enough to bid game.
!H
Most players don't get excited about hands that don't make a game or slam, but
statistically MOST of the hands dealt are part-score hands.
Whoever wins most of the part-score deals is more likely to win the game.
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. Today we are going to learn a simplified version of The Law of Total Tricks (LoTT)
. Lott is a statistically valid method of hand evaluation that occurs quite often.
. It is a BIG help in deciding how high to bid in part-score bidding situations.
. It is MUCH more reliable that Losing Trick Count, from a probability standpoint.
LOTT can really give you an edge against good competition, and you only have to be able to
. COUNT THE TRUMPS YOU THINK YOU AND PARTNER HAVE IN YOUR BEST SUIT.
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!H
Our simplified Law of Total Tricks (LOTT) says ...
. The number of tricks you can take on offense is equal to
. the combined number of trumps you hold - between you and your partner.
!H
In practice, this means that if you and partner have only an 8-card fit,
you should usually stop at the 2-level.
If you have a 9-card fit, you can safely bid 3 of your suit
if the opponents try to force you one level higher.
!H
Let's use our simplified Law of Total Tricks (LOTT)...
. Here is how the bidding has gone so far...
Partner RHO You LHO
. 1H 1S 2H 2S
. ?
What should your partner bid?
How would your partner know whether to pass or bid 3H?
!H Your partner should bid 3H only if he has a sixth heart,
If he does have a 6th heart, even if he has only a bare 11-12 pts, he should bid 3!H.
If partner passes, he's showing a minimum opener with only 5 hearts.
Sooo... If your partner has now passed, when it is your turn to bid,
you will bid 3H only if you have an extra trump - (4 hearts instead of the 3 you've promised).
Again, points don't matter. If you have 4-card heart support, bid 3H, even with a weak hand.
(43 10854 AJ94 Q86).
With this hand, you would bid 3!H
!H
Here is another bidding sequence to look at...
. Partner Opp You Opp
. 1C Pass 1S 2D
. 2S 3D ?
Here, your partner should never be the one to bid 3S because
he can't have an extra trump. If he had had 5, he would have opened !S's.
The auction has told you he holds a minimum opener with exactly 4 spades).
The decision is up to you.
!H
If you have the high-card strength to make a game, go ahead and bid 4S.
But if it's a partscore deal (one where you have a weaker hand of 6-10 pts.
and wanted to stop in 2S), you should bid 3S now only if you have a 5-card suit
(one more than you showed with your 1S response).
You would bid 3S here with J10843 K4 654 QJ2 .
You should pass with QJ43 K64 J54 QJ2
!H
Note: In a situation like the ones we've just looked at, the partner who bids at the 3-level
is not inviting game nor showing extra points.
He is merely competing, and the other partner should always pass.
If you have extra values and want to invite game,
you must make a game-try bid in a new suit.
!H Adjustments to the Law. . .
There are a few special cases where you might want to violate this rule, but ONLY IF
your hand has a good combination of the following features:
- A strong trump holding -- K107 instead of 643.
- Honor strength or length in a side suit partner has bid.
- No honor wastage in the opp's suit.
- Lower honors (jacks, queens, kings) in opp's suit may be valuable only if you're defending.
- Shortness in opp's suit- a singleton or void, even a doubleton, may provide a ruffing value.
- Unbalanced distribution -- something better than 4-3-3-3.
!H
One last very important thing to remember...
Everything we've just talked about applies equally to your opponents.
That means if your opps have an 8 card fit, the "Law" protects them to the 2 level.
Sooo... when both you and your opps both have an 8-card fit, AND IF
your suit is subordinate to your opp's suit,... YOU SHOULD BID ANYWAY.
The probability is that they will go to the 3-level and become quite vulnerable to a set.
You should have an average of 20 points + or -3 between you and your partner.
That's not enough for game - FOR EITHER SIDE.
Let's take a look at Hand #93 - 1958 World Championship
Italians bid and made 4 clubs as N-S in one room,
losing 1 spade and 2 red aces.
Their teammates bid and made 8 tricks E-W,
losing 1S, 1D, 1C and 2H.
Considering the concept of The Law of Total Tricks,' the total of the tricks made by the two sides, each playing in its best trump suit, the number of total tricks is 18 (10 for North-South in clubs, plus 8 for East-West in spades)."
Statisticians have determined that this "LAW" predicts the average number of total tricks available to both sides, each in its respective suit. In the example above, North-South have ten clubs, East-West eight spades. Thus, the total number of trumps is 18, the same as the total number of tricks."
"You may notice that in this deal the number of trumps held by each side was equal to the number of tricks it actually made--ten for North-South, eight for East-West. That is pure coincidence. It is only the equality between the total number of trumps and the total number of tricks that obeys a general law."
The closer to average or below HCP's in a pair's hand, the more accurate the law tends to be. Above 20 HCP's, the accuracy declines. In conclusion, according to Andrew Wirgen, "The Law" is better served in competitive part score auction and the strength is balanced. When these constraints are applied, a number of statisticians have argued that the LAW is probably accurate about 50% of the time, making it a very useful LAW.